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Can Forecasting Competitions Advance Decision Education?
WebMar 18, 2024 · geopolitical forecasting efforts in the DoD; (3) launching a geopolitical forecasting initiative in the White House, either as part of the National Security Council … WebMar 21, 2014 · In tournaments, forecasters typically only make predictions about a small subset of the total questions posed, and they choose the questions they predict, meaning … iowa back the blue act
Vehicle Innovations Forecasting Challenge PVMI
WebFeb 6, 2024 · Forecasting tournaments often focus on areas where the question outcomes are highly correlated so that a bias in the direction the questions happen to break contributes to a better score for the particular tournament even though the same bias leads to worse scores in the long run. WebJul 31, 2024 · INFER, a forecasting program funded by a grant from Open Philanthropy to generate valuable signals for U.S. Government policymakers, is hosting an … WebFor the last four years, we have been studying this transformation using crowdsourced forecasting tournaments in collaboration with Good Judgment Inc. (GJ), an … iowa ballot 2021